He's on his way home

He's on his way home

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Saizen REIT

Added a little at SGD0.89.

On Economic Moat:
This is a Residential REIT owning apartments in Japan and renting them out.
In a country like Japan, there is a sizable population who rent (as opposed to Singapore who are mostly owners), so while nothing exciting, I am expecting this type of REIT to remain stable over the long term.

On Margin of Safety:
Its NAV is currently estimated at about 1.20, that is more than 20% margin of safety.  I think Saizen REIT is one of the more undervalued REITs in SGX. Not sure why, but my wild guess is that it is just too boring? (think boring apartments in far faraway Japan... yawn...).

Dividend: Current dividend yield more than 7% which meets my expectations.

Debt: Gearing is 30% plus which is not low.  With the impending rise in interest rate due to QE tapering (which I suppose is a question of when not if), I need to be assured that the interest rate hike will not "kill" this REIT.  What I understand is that most of its loans are fixed at relatively low rates (I think Japan is trying to keep its interest rates low), as well as a recent refinancing of their loans extended their loan maturity commitments to 2018 (from previously 2015). Sounds like the management has got the situation under control.

Additional risk: Country risk and especially FX risk with the JPY possibly seeing further decline with so much "printing of money" under the new Japanese Prime Minister.

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