He's on his way home

He's on his way home

Monday, January 13, 2014

Fraser Centrepoint Ltd

Took a small position at SGD1.60.

On Economic Moat:
This is a familiar (its most famous building probably being Centrepoint at Orchard Rd) property giant which is newly listed (due to change in owner), who develop as well as own both residential, commercial & hospitality properties in Singapore, Australia, China & other countries.
They are also planning a Hospitality REIT listing in near future which will be great.
I see this as a blue chip and a play on the property sector. 
In terms of market capitalisation, it is only slightly smaller than Keppel Land.

I am generally confident of their existing business model and track record, especially their ability in developing properties to generate high yield and then pass them onto their REITs to recycle their capital for new projects.
However there is some uncertainty concerning how the new owner Charoen will perform compared to the previous owner F&N who have been consistently growing its profits and assets as well as a possible management change in the near future as well.

Margin of Safety:
Based on NAV of SGD2.12, at current prices, we are talking about a 25% discount to book.  25% is quite a comfortable margin of safety for me, since I considered this a blue chip.  If we compare to other blue chip property counters like CapitaLand and Keppel Land, their current discount to book is only approx. 20%. Most property counters are trading at a discount due to the current gloom over the property sector.  If Fraser should trade at 20% discount too, their current fair price will be around SGD1.70.  So if you think they are comparable in terms of quality of assets,buying Fraser below SGD1.70 makes sense (note that I "discovered" this a little late, only during the weekend when I read THE EDGE, it was only about SGD1.50 on Friday). 

Dividends:
While there are no established dividend policies, they have already declared a 1.7 cents dividend, which works out to approx. 1%, and if I extrapolate this to be on a quarterly basis, then we are looking at potentially a 4% dividend pay out, my wild speculation of course...

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