He's on his way home

He's on his way home

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Update on my stock portfolio

During the recent market correction, added a little to Sports Toto as well as China Merchant Pacific.
Now, my stock portfolio provides approx. 6% yield and consist of:

1. China Merchant Pacific
2. Naratel
3. TTJ
4. Challenger
5. Hock Lian Seng
6. Sports Toto
7. Old Town
8. Kingsmen
9. UMS
10. Fraser Centrepoint Trust
11. Saizen REIT

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

UMS

Initiated small position in UMS today.

Prices still falling and may fall further but I decided its 'cheap' enough to start buying.
Was on my watch list for quite a long while but did not had any opportunity as I continue to watch this stock keep on running up...

In the biz of semiconductor industry and its downside risks is tied closely to its key customer Applied Materials (80% of revenue).
It has a contract with Applied Materials until 2017 (renewable) and to me, its strong relationship with Applied Materials is its economic moat.
Applied Materials recently is reducing its stake in UMS that is causing the plunge, plus the CEO selling his shares too.
I am buying as I am not trying to read too much into their actions.
Companies/people sell their stocks for various reasons so I am of opinion (optimistic) that it is not due to a deterioration of UMS fundamentals or relationship with Applied Materials.
Keeping fingers crossed.

At current prices, PE approx. 8, dividend yield >7% for a net cash company with sound fundamentals and strong earnings.
Sounds good to me.

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Kingsmen Creative

Decided to initiate small position in Kingsmen today.

Designs & produce exhibits and reputed for quality interior design works,
with a niche in the mid to up-market retail sector.

Track record indicate that we are looking at a strong & steadily growing company,
PE 10 at current prices suggest it is slightly undervalued (for a steady grower).

Also looking attractive as a net cash company,
dividend yield 4.3% at current prices with a potential dividend growth story.
Am anticipating a bump up in dividends especially that we are expecting a good FY14.

Added TTJ to core portfolio

Added to TTJ recently, making my average price SGD0.289. 
Now total of 35 lots, significant to make it part of my core portfolio,
which now consist of 5 stocks, 2 REITs.

In the biz of structural steel, it is riding on the infrastructure boom in Singapore.
A net cash company with a good & growing earnings track record, looking at (based on 1H results) possible record earnings for this FY.
Dividends wise, at my purchase price only 3.5% yield but I believe there is a dividend growth story.
With the continuing positive outlook for the construction sector in Singapore, given TTJ's excellent track record, I am confident it will get its fair share of opportunities.
PE ratio about 6 for an established company with solid track record, I think it is undervalued.

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Divested FCL

Sold all my 6 lots in FCL today, 30% capital gain.  I think the current valuation is rich.  And I need to replenish my almost empty war chest so that I will be able to capitalise on any opportunities arising later in the year.  Decided to harvest FCL, the only non-income stock/REIT in my core portfolio.

Core Portfolio now consist of:

1. Naratel
2. CM Pacific
3. Challenger
4. Hock Lian Seng
5. FCT
6. Saizen REIT 

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Quick Analysis

Quick self-reflection on the key points of my current stock picking process (still evolving)

Main lines of thought:
Understandable Business; look out for a Dividend Growth Thesis; consider Downside Risks

Looking for a Moat in Quantitative Analysis:
Net Cash Company; gives out Generous Dividends; with good Earnings Track Record

Looking for a Moat in Qualitative Analysis:
Signs of good Management; has good Prospects; with a identifiable Competitive Edge

Margin of Safety:
Initiate position at or near fair value; and add when margin of safety opens up

Review:
Check if the storyline remains intact with no fundamental deterioration of its original thesis

Sold off Matrix

Earlier blog post I purchased Matrix at average price less than RM3, now I sold them all off at slightly over RM4. (small number of lots)

Reason:

Recently read an article and have a new understanding that most of its land bank are actually not owned by Matrix but rather by its JV partners.  With that understanding I opine that its RNAV is thus much lower than RM5 as I previously believed (hard to figure out exact value as they build the houses on someone's else land, they own the houses but not the land? mind boggling for a novice investor like me).  I conclude this is not an asset play.  I am also coming to have some doubts over the sustainability of its current level of earnings in the long term.

I am sticking to one of Warren Buffet's rule, invest within your circle of competence.  I originally thought it to be a simple asset play, now that it is not, that its business model is beyond my level of comprehension means it has fallen way out of my circle of competence.  Being risk averse, I decided to sell them even though it seems like to be continuing on an uptrend.  To have made some pocket money on this stock was solely due to luck, I am grateful for that and will not try to push my luck further.  To be able to sleep peacefully at night is very important to me =)