Sold all my 6 lots in FCL today, 30% capital gain. I think the current valuation is rich. And I need to replenish my almost empty war chest so that I will be able to capitalise on any opportunities arising later in the year. Decided to harvest FCL, the only non-income stock/REIT in my core portfolio.
Core Portfolio now consist of:
1. Naratel
2. CM Pacific
3. Challenger
4. Hock Lian Seng
5. FCT
6. Saizen REIT
He's on his way home
Tuesday, May 27, 2014
Wednesday, May 21, 2014
Quick Analysis
Quick self-reflection on the key points of my current stock picking process (still evolving)
Main lines of thought:
Understandable Business; look out for a Dividend Growth Thesis; consider Downside Risks
Looking for a Moat in Quantitative Analysis:
Net Cash Company; gives out Generous Dividends; with good Earnings Track Record
Looking for a Moat in Qualitative Analysis:
Signs of good Management; has good Prospects; with a identifiable Competitive Edge
Margin of Safety:
Initiate position at or near fair value; and add when margin of safety opens up
Review:
Check if the storyline remains intact with no fundamental deterioration of its original thesis
Main lines of thought:
Understandable Business; look out for a Dividend Growth Thesis; consider Downside Risks
Looking for a Moat in Quantitative Analysis:
Net Cash Company; gives out Generous Dividends; with good Earnings Track Record
Looking for a Moat in Qualitative Analysis:
Signs of good Management; has good Prospects; with a identifiable Competitive Edge
Margin of Safety:
Initiate position at or near fair value; and add when margin of safety opens up
Review:
Check if the storyline remains intact with no fundamental deterioration of its original thesis
Sold off Matrix
Earlier blog post I purchased Matrix at average price less than RM3, now I sold them all off at slightly over RM4. (small number of lots)
Reason:
Recently read an article and have a new understanding that most of its land bank are actually not owned by Matrix but rather by its JV partners. With that understanding I opine that its RNAV is thus much lower than RM5 as I previously believed (hard to figure out exact value as they build the houses on someone's else land, they own the houses but not the land? mind boggling for a novice investor like me). I conclude this is not an asset play. I am also coming to have some doubts over the sustainability of its current level of earnings in the long term.
I am sticking to one of Warren Buffet's rule, invest within your circle of competence. I originally thought it to be a simple asset play, now that it is not, that its business model is beyond my level of comprehension means it has fallen way out of my circle of competence. Being risk averse, I decided to sell them even though it seems like to be continuing on an uptrend. To have made some pocket money on this stock was solely due to luck, I am grateful for that and will not try to push my luck further. To be able to sleep peacefully at night is very important to me =)
Reason:
Recently read an article and have a new understanding that most of its land bank are actually not owned by Matrix but rather by its JV partners. With that understanding I opine that its RNAV is thus much lower than RM5 as I previously believed (hard to figure out exact value as they build the houses on someone's else land, they own the houses but not the land? mind boggling for a novice investor like me). I conclude this is not an asset play. I am also coming to have some doubts over the sustainability of its current level of earnings in the long term.
I am sticking to one of Warren Buffet's rule, invest within your circle of competence. I originally thought it to be a simple asset play, now that it is not, that its business model is beyond my level of comprehension means it has fallen way out of my circle of competence. Being risk averse, I decided to sell them even though it seems like to be continuing on an uptrend. To have made some pocket money on this stock was solely due to luck, I am grateful for that and will not try to push my luck further. To be able to sleep peacefully at night is very important to me =)
Friday, May 16, 2014
Oldtown - Aroma of Good Times
Initiated small position at RM2.05.
Think most of us should be familiar with old town white coffee and its café outlets.
Its core biz includes cafes and the manufacturing & selling of beverages (think instant coffee mix)
Old town is a market leader in white coffee,
established in Singapore/Malaysia and growing its presence in China, Indonesia & Australia.
I like its bold, clear and focused vision: to be Asia Pacific Leading White Coffee Brand.
A net cash company, growing earnings with potentially double digit growth over the coming years, given the large potential market in China and especially in its sale of beverages.
They are well capable of ramping up production to meet that potential increase in demand, as the plant is currently being underutilised at only 40%.
Dividends only approx. 3.5% at current prices, but I am counting on a dividend growth thesis, if it maintains its 50% dividend payout, we should be looking at a more than 4% dividend yield after 3 years.
At PE 17, taking into account growth prospects, I think the price is reasonable.
But it is NOT cheap, hence don't dare to buy more, just hope that opportunity will present itself in the later part of the year...
Think most of us should be familiar with old town white coffee and its café outlets.
Its core biz includes cafes and the manufacturing & selling of beverages (think instant coffee mix)
Old town is a market leader in white coffee,
established in Singapore/Malaysia and growing its presence in China, Indonesia & Australia.
I like its bold, clear and focused vision: to be Asia Pacific Leading White Coffee Brand.
A net cash company, growing earnings with potentially double digit growth over the coming years, given the large potential market in China and especially in its sale of beverages.
They are well capable of ramping up production to meet that potential increase in demand, as the plant is currently being underutilised at only 40%.
Dividends only approx. 3.5% at current prices, but I am counting on a dividend growth thesis, if it maintains its 50% dividend payout, we should be looking at a more than 4% dividend yield after 3 years.
At PE 17, taking into account growth prospects, I think the price is reasonable.
But it is NOT cheap, hence don't dare to buy more, just hope that opportunity will present itself in the later part of the year...
Monday, May 12, 2014
Added a little China Merchant Pacific
Added a little at SGD0.915, making my average purchase price SGD0.885.
Decided to add a little more to another solid company with stable earnings and generous dividends.
Decided to add a little more to another solid company with stable earnings and generous dividends.
Friday, May 9, 2014
Added a little Challenger
Added a little at SGD0.53, average purchase price now SGD0.505, total 18 lots.
It dropped quite a lot today due to a poor Q1 showing.
What's worrying to me is that its revenue seems to be growing slower than before, with narrowing margins.
The fact that I am still adding instead of selling means I remain optimistic that its earnings is still on a uptrend, although on a slower growth path. I also remain confident in the management, based on its solid track record.
A net cash company, PE11, ROE 30% with an excellent earnings record, dividend yield around 5% and likely still room for a little more dividend growth, I decided to take advantage of the current price weakness to accumulate sufficiently to now consider it part of my 'core' portfolio.
It dropped quite a lot today due to a poor Q1 showing.
What's worrying to me is that its revenue seems to be growing slower than before, with narrowing margins.
The fact that I am still adding instead of selling means I remain optimistic that its earnings is still on a uptrend, although on a slower growth path. I also remain confident in the management, based on its solid track record.
A net cash company, PE11, ROE 30% with an excellent earnings record, dividend yield around 5% and likely still room for a little more dividend growth, I decided to take advantage of the current price weakness to accumulate sufficiently to now consider it part of my 'core' portfolio.
Tuesday, May 6, 2014
Added a little Neratel
Added a little at 73cents. Average purchase price becomes 68cents.
PE 11 for a net cash company with strong earnings record, generous dividends in excess of 8% yield and likely to register growth over the next couple years?
Sounds reasonable to me =)
PE 11 for a net cash company with strong earnings record, generous dividends in excess of 8% yield and likely to register growth over the next couple years?
Sounds reasonable to me =)
Monday, May 5, 2014
Zen & Investing
I have reframed my blog to "Zen Mind, Value Investing Mind" from "Economic Moats, Margin of Safety" to reflect a desire to integrate my investing journey as part of my spiritual practice.
Zen is a way of life, one that aims to learn to live authentically, instead of dwelling in our self-centred dreams and thoughts. Moving from a self-centred life to a more life-centred one.
This doesn't mean we don't take care of ourselves, as a life-centred approach includes taking care of one's own-self as well as one's family (including investing to provide steady stream of passive income after retirement). The key is not to get lost in our narrow self-centred obsessions and learning to live with a more open mind and heart. This means, to me, not a radical change in lifestyle, rather a gentle shift in our everyday living to becoming a kinder person.
Through mindful awareness, we begin to notice the ways we are unkind. Then slowly releasing and letting go of the ways we are unkind, slowly we allow the intrinsic kindness in our heart to slowly surface, in a gradual gradual way (hardly noticeable probably).
Relating to investing, while I try to bring more mindful awareness into the whole process, I am still unsure how this integration with my spiritual practice will turn out. At this point in time, there is just an intention to integrate with no clear ideas on how to doing it systematically or what the outcome will be like.
One glimpse of the outcome is perhaps what I have discussed in some of my past posts, where I made commitments to donating investment earnings to meaningful causes. As I slowly move along my investing journey, at the same time learning to open my awareness to suffering out there in our world, and learning to make commitments to sharing a growing portion of my wealth with those who could use a little help financially. For example, the commitment to sponsoring a child, which not only enable us to assist the child and his/her family financially, but through writing letters, we can also hopefully bring some positive influence and hope to him/her.
I am taking a gradual approach
May everyone be well & happy =)
Zen is a way of life, one that aims to learn to live authentically, instead of dwelling in our self-centred dreams and thoughts. Moving from a self-centred life to a more life-centred one.
This doesn't mean we don't take care of ourselves, as a life-centred approach includes taking care of one's own-self as well as one's family (including investing to provide steady stream of passive income after retirement). The key is not to get lost in our narrow self-centred obsessions and learning to live with a more open mind and heart. This means, to me, not a radical change in lifestyle, rather a gentle shift in our everyday living to becoming a kinder person.
Through mindful awareness, we begin to notice the ways we are unkind. Then slowly releasing and letting go of the ways we are unkind, slowly we allow the intrinsic kindness in our heart to slowly surface, in a gradual gradual way (hardly noticeable probably).
Relating to investing, while I try to bring more mindful awareness into the whole process, I am still unsure how this integration with my spiritual practice will turn out. At this point in time, there is just an intention to integrate with no clear ideas on how to doing it systematically or what the outcome will be like.
One glimpse of the outcome is perhaps what I have discussed in some of my past posts, where I made commitments to donating investment earnings to meaningful causes. As I slowly move along my investing journey, at the same time learning to open my awareness to suffering out there in our world, and learning to make commitments to sharing a growing portion of my wealth with those who could use a little help financially. For example, the commitment to sponsoring a child, which not only enable us to assist the child and his/her family financially, but through writing letters, we can also hopefully bring some positive influence and hope to him/her.
I am taking a gradual approach
May everyone be well & happy =)
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